Two weeks before the next elections, headlines spell big trouble for Labour.
Candidates contest more than 5,000 seats across 136 councils and devolved governments in England, Scotland, and Wales a week on Thursday (7 May).
Sensible money points to a drubbing for a Labour Party led by a deeply unpopular Prime Minister facing calls to resign over the Mandelson crisis.
According to this projection, Reform stands to gain the most from Labour and Conservative losses.
Look at those numbers again for a second. Labour could lose more than ONE THOUSAND council seats in England. Reform could rise from nowhere to gain more than 1,200, councillors with Greens and Lib Dems also squeezing the Labour vote.
“One of the things I heard in the Treasury at the time [I was a minister in that department] is that ‘there is no such thing as local growth.’”
The Rt Hon Greg Clark, ex cabinet minister.
Former housing secretary Greg Clark’s insight into his discussions with Treasury staff speaks to a mindset within government that’s constrained the economy for too long.
Overly centralised, mistrusting of local partners and blind to great organisations supporting growth across the country. It’s a bleakly depressing take.
Thankfully, that comment shared by Mr Clark in Bristol last week happened more than a decade ago. And although it’s easy to miss in the day to day, we’ve seen a shift since then.
Devolution is on the agenda. The Chancellor’s Mais Lecture pointed to further investment in cities. And local growth is happening.
The Brunel Centre’s Strategic Economic Audit of the West of England doesn’t roll off the tongue easily. But it contains a raft of data and insights from people who work here that should be invaluable to those making the case for investment, for government backing or just to better tell the story of this place.
The report highlights that our region which covers the four local authority areas around Bristol and Bath is the most productive outside of London. We’ve got innovative businesses, strong trade, a skilled labour market and four great universities.
It also speaks to challenges, which need fixing – transport, housing affordability, child poverty, and youth unemployment in Bristol.
I was struck by the section on business which highlights that SMEs in the region are stuck in a ‘holding pattern’, lacking confidence in the wider economy and reluctant to invest.
This is complex, multi-layered stuff. It was good to hear senior well-respected speakers like Greg Clark offer reflections in a measured way that stands in contrast to much of the shrill commentary we see in the media.
Anyone who lives and works in the West of England will have their own perspective on what works and what doesn’t. Like me, they’ll have their own views on what the data says. It’s worth taking a look for yourself.
Even when losing a contest you badly want to win, there’s something to be said for dignity in defeat. You can still lose gracefully and earn respect and win friends.
There are memorable examples of this, which stand out against the febrile atmosphere surrounding public discourse today.
When New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern resigned in 2023, she said she “no longer had enough in the tank” to do the job justice. She could have blamed opponents or spun the decision. Instead, the message was simply: it’s time for someone else to lead.
Nigel Farage’s recent ‘have a go Britain’ speech included a snippet on working from home that will land badly with many because of its failure to recognise the realities of modern life.
Weirdly calling for an ‘attitudinal change’ (whatever that means), his speech to Reform supporters said:
“People aren’t more productive working from home. It’s a LOAD. OF. NONSENSE. They’re more productive being with other fellow human beings and working as part of the team.”
Many of his applauding supporters looked like they hadn’t worked in many years. I’ll come back to that.
A fast start to the year makes it important to find time to make sense of events and what they mean for us.
Headlines scream chaos at us. Donald Trump’s statements this week alone – on Greenland, threats of increased tariffs, slurs against NATO troops and peace boards with Putin – are enough to make the head spin. And maybe that’s the point.
We can’t know what this means for the global economy, security and the values that many world leaders seemed to share until recently.
